Big, Beautiful Bill’ Could Soar Deficit by $2.4 Trillion

🚨 House GOP’s Big, Beautiful Bill

House Republicans’ ambitious tax-and-spending bill, championed by House Speaker Mike Johnson, would boost the federal deficit by a staggering $2.4 trillion over the next decade, according to a new analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). This finding has set off alarm bells in Washington and could throw a wrench into the Senate’s efforts to shape its own version of the legislation.

📣 The CBO report, released Wednesday, estimates that the House bill would also result in nearly 11 million more uninsured Americans by 2034. Most of these losses would come from deep cuts to Medicaid—a move that some GOP senators are already wary of.

💥 The Cost of “Trump’s Agenda”

The House GOP package is a sweeping proposal to permanently extend almost all of the individual income tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). It also provides temporary tax relief for seniors and for workers earning tips or overtime. On top of that, it restores key tax breaks for businesses, allowing them to immediately write off the costs of research and equipment.

💰 But here’s the catch: While the bill slashes spending by about $1.3 trillion, it also cuts revenue by a whopping $3.7 trillion. The math? It doesn’t balance, leaving taxpayers on the hook for an additional $2.4 trillion in deficit spending over 10 years, the CBO says.

🏥 Health Care and Safety Nets Slashed

To help cover the cost of these tax cuts, the House bill makes historic reductions to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). It introduces work requirements for Medicaid recipients and expands similar mandates for SNAP, which could push millions of low-income Americans off these vital programs.

🚨 According to the CBO’s estimate, here’s who would be hit the hardest by 2034:

• 7.8 million Americans losing Medicaid

• 1.4 million immigrants without verified citizenship losing coverage

• Others losing insurance due to cuts in Affordable Care Act subsidies

“This would be the biggest rollback in federal support for health care ever,” warned Larry Levitt, executive vice president for health policy at KFF, on X.

⚖️ Divided GOP, Democratic Pushback

The Senate is now taking up the House bill, but Majority Leader John Thune faces tough negotiations within his own party. Some Senate Republicans want even deeper spending cuts to bring down the deficit, while others are alarmed by the magnitude of Medicaid reductions and the potential political backlash. 🏛️

Trump and House GOP leaders, meanwhile, have tried to discredit the CBO’s findings, claiming the agency is ignoring the bill’s supposed boost to economic growth. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise dismissed the deficit warnings outright: “Anybody who repeats CBO’s analysis is also making those same mistakes,” he declared. “You’re going to see economic growth like we haven’t seen in generations, with more money in workers’ pockets and more Treasury revenue.”

The CBO, however, says it’s working on a separate analysis that will factor in any potential economic impacts of the bill. Still, independent groups like the Penn Wharton Budget Model have already projected that the tax cuts will heavily favor wealthy households, leaving lower-income Americans worse off once cuts to Medicaid and SNAP are included.

💸 Winners and Losers

According to these independent analyses:

• The wealthiest Americans would enjoy the largest gains thanks to the extended tax cuts.

• The lowest-income Americans could see their incomes fall after taxes and lost benefits.

• The middle class? Facing higher health care costs if they lose coverage.

And while the House bill would boost spending on defense, border security, and immigration enforcement—key priorities for President Trump—it’s clear that these increases don’t come cheap. 🏛️💰

🚦 Next Steps and What to Watch

Senators are already revising the bill, but any changes must be reconciled with the House version before reaching President Trump’s desk—something Thune hopes to accomplish by July 4.

Democrats are wasting no time hammering Republicans over the CBO’s findings. “It’s shocking House Republicans rushed to vote on this bill without an accounting from CBO on the millions of people who will lose their health care or the trillions of dollars it would add to the national debt,” said Rep. Frank Pallone Jr., the top Democrat on the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

Billionaire Elon Musk, who previously worked with the federal government, also joined the chorus of critics. In a post on X, Musk called the bill a “disgusting abomination” and warned it would “bankrupt America.”

🔍 The Bottom Line

The House GOP’s “big, beautiful bill” is anything but beautiful for deficit hawks and low-income Americans. With $2.4 trillion in new debt and historic Medicaid cuts on the table, the bill faces an uphill battle in the Senate and intense political scrutiny.💥