🚢 Retailers Warn of Empty Shelves as US-China Trade War Disrupts Shipments

The escalating U.S.-China trade war is starting to ripple through the broader American economy, and retailers are sounding the alarm.

Retail giants like Walmart and Target are warning of potential empty shelves and higher prices, as a sharp decline in shipments from China begins to strain supply chains. The Financial Times reports that container port operators and air freight managers across the United States are seeing steep drops in traffic — a direct consequence of President Donald Trump’s imposition of a massive 145% tariff on Chinese imports.

📉 Container Traffic Collapses

Since the tariffs took effect, logistics companies have reported a collapse in container bookings. The Port of Los Angeles — the primary gateway for Chinese goods entering the U.S. — expects a staggering 33% drop in scheduled arrivals during the week starting May 4 compared to the same time last year. Air freight companies are seeing a similar contraction.

The timing could not be worse. March and April are critical months for American retailers, who traditionally begin stocking up for the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons. Continued uncertainty around tariffs could cause some companies to cancel orders outright, putting the year’s most crucial sales periods at risk.

🏷️ The Highest Trade Costs Since the 1930s

The cost of accessing U.S. markets is now at its highest since the Great Depression. According to an International Chamber of Commerce survey spanning 60 countries, businesses expect lasting damage to global trade networks even if future agreements are reached. Many companies are bracing for a “new normal” in which a baseline 10% tariff on goods entering the U.S. is permanent.

The implications are profound: traders are delaying or abandoning shipping plans altogether. By mid-April, bookings for standard 20-foot containers traveling from China to the U.S. had plunged 45% year-over-year, according to container-tracking service Vizion.

🚛 Shipments Delayed, Warehoused, or Rerouted

As supply chains buckle under the pressure, companies are scrambling to adapt. Some are stockpiling goods in bonded warehouses to postpone tariff payments. Others are rerouting shipments through Canada, hoping to bypass immediate tariff impacts.

Yet, the broader picture remains bleak. Freight companies report that Chinese clients have canceled nearly 30% of their U.S.-bound bookings. Bloomberg estimates container traffic has dropped by as much as 60% since early April.

Though the fallout has yet to fully reach American consumers, experts warn the effects will be visible within months: rising prices, thinner inventories, and possibly — empty store shelves.

🛒 Walmart and Target Raise the Alarm

Major retailers are already bracing for a turbulent summer and fall. Walmart and Target have formally warned the Trump administration that product shortages and price hikes are imminent — eerily similar to supply chain disruptions seen during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Industry groups caution that beyond inconvenience to shoppers, the trade war could trigger job losses across trucking, warehousing, and retail sectors.

⚠️ Negotiations Stall, Recession Fears Mount

While Washington and Beijing have both introduced limited exemptions for critical goods, hopes for a comprehensive deal are fading. President Trump recently suggested the 145% tariffs could eventually be lowered, but Chinese officials announced Friday that no active negotiations are underway.

The standoff has further fueled economic concerns. Bloomberg reports that U.S. economists now believe a recession is a near coin toss, with imports projected to fall at a 7% annual rate in Q2 — the steepest decline since the height of the pandemic. Inflation expectations have also been revised upward, as dwindling supplies are likely to drive consumer prices even higher.

Some categories of Chinese goods could see prices double before year’s end, squeezing households already burdened by elevated living costs.

Bottom Line:
The U.S.-China trade war’s latest chapter is hitting closer to home than ever. For American retailers and consumers, the next few months could feel like déjà vu — with fewer choices, higher prices, and mounting economic uncertainty.