Trump’s “51st State” Talk Overshadows Final Days of Canada’s Election Campaign

Published: April 24, 2025

As Canadians head into the final stretch of a tense national election, U.S. President Donald Trump has once again thrust himself into the spotlight—this time by suggesting that Canada would “cease to exist” without American support. His remarks, delivered from the Oval Office just days before Canadians cast their ballots, have sparked a political firestorm north of the border and reignited fears of deeper trade tensions.

Trump’s comments, which included renewed threats to hike tariffs on Canadian autos beyond the already punishing 25 percent, have further polarized the political climate in Canada. The president criticized Canada’s automotive industry, accusing the country of "taking a large percentage of the car making" and reiterated his desire to see that manufacturing return to states like Michigan, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

These remarks come amid an already fraught campaign season in Canada, where Trump has become an unlikely but dominant figure. The election’s 37-day run has overlapped with the escalating U.S.-Canada trade dispute, and the specter of a full-blown economic clash has become central to the political debate.

A Boon for the Liberals?

For Liberal Leader and current Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump’s interventions may be politically opportune. Carney has repeatedly warned that Trump is not just targeting trade policies but aiming to “break” Canada’s autonomy and absorb it into a U.S.-dominated economic system.

With the election effectively becoming a referendum on who can best stand up to Trump, the Liberals are leveraging the tension to galvanize support. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly even told supporters at a rally outside Montreal earlier this week that the party is now pushing for a majority mandate, emboldened by Trump’s rhetoric.

Carney called the snap election on March 24, citing the need for a strong mandate to face down growing economic pressure from Washington. If successful on election night, he’s promised a meeting with Trump “within days” to push back against the aggressive stance from the U.S.

Conservatives Tout Direct Line to Trump

Meanwhile, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is offering a different path forward. He’s stated that, should he win, he would immediately open lines of communication with the White House.

The Conservatives are attempting to position themselves as the party that can pragmatically manage the U.S.-Canada relationship, avoiding escalation and securing economic stability. However, critics argue this approach risks placating Trump and sacrificing Canadian sovereignty in the process.

Trump Plays Coy—Sort Of

Despite his outsized presence in the campaign, Trump has claimed he has no intention of interfering in Canada’s democratic process.

Nonetheless, he admitted to having spoken with Prime Minister Carney, noting their conversations were “very nice.” While the only confirmed call occurred publicly on March 28, Trump suggested there were other conversations, though no details were offered.

What’s at Stake

This election is more than a contest between political parties—it’s a test of how Canada sees its place in a world where its largest trading partner is becoming increasingly hostile. At stake are not only the economic implications of trade wars and tariffs, but also broader questions about sovereignty, diplomacy, and national identity.

With polls tightening and rhetoric intensifying, the final days of Canada’s campaign are set against the backdrop of an unpredictable U.S. president whose words are reverberating far beyond his own borders. For many Canadians, the question at the ballot box is simple yet weighty: who is best equipped to stand up to Donald Trump?

Whether Carney can turn Trump’s intrusion into a fourth mandate or Poilievre can convince voters he can manage the relationship better, one thing is clear—this election, like much else in global politics, is now playing out in Trump’s shadow.