Trump’s Agenda on the Line: Can Johnson Deliver?

🧨With just hours to go before a rare 10 p.m. Sunday night vote, House Speaker Mike Johnson is locked in high-stakes negotiations to avoid a second embarrassing failure for the GOP’s cornerstone “megabill” — a sweeping package central to President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda.

What’s at stake? Everything from Medicaid reforms to green energy tax credits to Trump’s broader economic vision for America. But deep fractures in the Republican Party threaten to derail the bill for a second time in just three days.

💥 The First Collapse

On Friday, four hardline conservatives on the House Budget Committee brought the entire process to a screeching halt, refusing to back the bill and sinking it in committee. The rebellion was a major blow to GOP leadership — and to Trump himself — who had publicly called for Republicans to unite and push the legislation forward without delay.

Now, Johnson is tightening his grip on the talks, personally negotiating with GOP holdouts in a last-ditch effort to muscle the megabill back through committee and onto the House floor before lawmakers head home for Memorial Day recess on Thursday.

🩺 Medicaid Becomes the Flashpoint

One of the thorniest issues: Medicaid.

Hardliners are demanding faster implementation of strict work requirements for millions of low-income, able-bodied Americans who currently qualify for Medicaid. They want the changes to kick in by 2027, not 2029 — and they’re pushing to eliminate state waivers and cap federal funding more aggressively.

But there’s a catch. Trump has so far resisted any move that could be perceived as cutting Medicaid benefits — a program that many of his most loyal supporters in deep red states rely on.

“In the end, the president is gonna have to weigh in on where he stands on Medicaid,” said one source familiar with the weekend talks.

Until then, the standoff continues.

🏛️ What’s Still in Play

🔹 Medicaid Work Requirements: 2027 start date proposed, waivers under fire
🔹 Biden-Era Green Tax Credits: Hardliners want full repeal, GOP leaders say votes aren’t there
🔹 State & Local Tax Cap: $40,000 for individuals, $80,000 for couples — but how to fund it remains uncertain
🔹 Clean Energy Programs: Still a sticking point for fiscal conservatives
🔹 Centrist Concerns: Blue-state Republicans want relief for high-tax states, complicating the math even further

Late-night phone calls and in-person meetings stretched into Sunday evening, with Speaker Johnson walking a political tightrope between ultraconservative demands and centrist concerns.

📉 Trump Feels the Pressure

Trump and Johnson are not just racing against the clock. They’re racing against a growing tide of bad economic headlines:

• 📉 Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating

• 📉 Bond markets saw significant volatility

• 🛒 Walmart announced price hikes linked to Trump’s tariff hikes

The message is clear: Trump needs a win, and Republicans need to deliver it before the political damage compounds.

👊 The Hardliners Aren’t Budging

Despite GOP leadership’s attempts to appease the holdouts, key conservatives remain unmoved. Reps. Ralph Norman (SC), Chip Roy (TX), Josh Brecheen (OK), and Andrew Clyde (GA) are demanding deeper spending cuts and a more aggressive rollback of Biden-era policies.

“If I get in a room with the president, I’m going to tell him this isn’t what he asked for,” one GOP lawmaker warned.

GOP leaders have floated the idea of bringing all factions to the White House so Trump can personally lean on the rebels. But that strategy is fraught — the risk of public discord with the president could fracture the party even further.

🕙 The Countdown to 10 p.m.

As the clock ticks toward tonight’s critical vote, Speaker Johnson is banking on late compromises and presidential pressure to salvage the megabill.

Will it be enough? Or will this effort go down as another failed chapter in a GOP still struggling to govern its own coalition?